Posted by: Donald Diltz | April 14, 2012

Housing Decline Long Term? But Real Estate like All Politics is Local!

When your clients start sharing national tales of doom and gloom, give them a good critique of the flawed thinking in this analytical article.

======================> What if Housing Declines for a Generation?

Charles Smith provides a fascinating and well founded analysis of the national housing market.  But real estate, like all politics, is local.  His analytical components appear to make sense in aggregate, but when broken down to our regional level…not so much.  Arguably, even on a national scale, when immigration is factored in to the demographics, his analysis is all wet.  The SF Bay area has stronger demographics, stronger creditworthy buyers and stronger incomes supporting housing acquisition, and by virtue of the economy and demographics including in migration from domestic and international sources, it even has stronger household formation — all of which leads to a restoration of faith in housing as a long term investment…here…in the SF Bay Area.

Even in a flat national housing market, the SF Bay Area fares well based on all the fundamental components that Smith articulates.  As we stand now, our diverse technology based economy is an engine for growth and supported by desirable climate and nearly unparalleled cultural environment.


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